For ten years, whenever Manchester City turned up at Wembley for a domestic final, the script barely changed. Pep Guardiola would talk down the occasion beforehand, and then, more often than not, City would win it. They did it twice last season alone — beating Arsenal 2-0 in March's Carabao Cup final, Nico O'Reilly scoring both goals, and then edging past Chelsea 1-0 in the FA Cup final in May, Antoine Semenyo's backheeled flick settling that one. Both wins came under the arch, amid the smoke and noise that City's players had grown almost used to.None of that applies to Sunday’s Community Shield. Guardiola is gone, replaced by Enzo Maresca after his decade at the Etihad ended, and Wembley itself is unavailable — The Weeknd is playing there both Saturday and Sunday, so the FA have shifted the 2026 Community Shield to the Principality Stadium in Cardiff, the first time the fixture has been staged there since 2006. City, then, arrive at a ground with no history of trophies for them, under a manager with no competitive matches for them, missing the midfielder who has anchored almost everything they've done for six years.That's what makes Sunday interesting, even for a match regularly waved away as a glorified friendly. It's the first real test of what City look like without Guardiola.The early signs, gathered from preseason, are mixed. Maresca's first match in charge, a 1-1 draw with Inter Milan in Hong Kong that City lost on penalties, gave some early clues. He set up in a 4-2-3-1 — Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, Rico Lewis pushed into an inverted role at right-back, Mateo Kovacic and Tijjani Reijnders holding midfield, Phil Foden captaining the side behind Divin Mubama up front. It's the same base shape Maresca leaned on at Chelsea and Leicester, though those sides morphed into a 3-2-5 or a box midfield once they had the ball, and there's little reason to think City will be much different once the system beds in.What's harder to read is the squad itself, because so much of it simply wasn't there. Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku, Marc Guéhi, Nico O'Reilly and new signing Elliot Anderson were all given extended leave after going deep into the World Cup, and were only expected back in training in the days before the Shield. Fringe players like Kalvin Phillips and Jack Grealish are both likely to leave the club before the window shuts, with Grealish still working his way back from a foot injury picked up on loan at Everton. That's a lot of first-team experience missing from Maresca's first real audition.And then there's Rodri, who won't play at all. The Ballon d'Or winner is recovering from back surgery, and his situation has become one of the summer's more tangled sagas. Real Madrid's interest, once considered the likeliest destination if he left, has stalled over personal terms, and reports suggest Rodri now prefers a move to Barcelona instead, should he go at all. Amidst the tug-of-war between the Spanish giants, City are said to be holding out for a fee between 65 million and 80 million euros. Crucially, they are under no pressure to sell, nor is Rodri actively pushing for a move. But regardless of whether a transfer materialises this summer, City's most important player of the past six years won't be walking out in Cardiff.A different kind of testArsenal represent a different problem entirely, and a familiar one. This is not the Arsenal that City spent years brushing aside in title races. Twice in the recent past, City did exactly that — most starkly in 2023-24, when Guardiola's side pipped Arsenal to the league by two agonising points. Arsenal finished runners-up three seasons running, in 2022-23, 2023-24, and again in 2024-25, and the "nearly men" tag stuck hard enough that even City beating them 2-1 in April, deep into last season's run-in, felt like business as usual. It was the sort of result that, in previous years, would have been the moment Arsenal's challenge quietly folded.It didn't. Arsenal held their nerve through to the end, and when City could only draw at Bournemouth in May, the title was Arsenal's — their first in 22 years, since Arsène Wenger's Invincibles in 2003-04. It arrived built on the least glamorous foundations imaginable, a miserly defence and a set-piece routine so relentless it produced more dead-ball goals than any team in Europe's top five leagues over the past decade. Whatever the aesthetics, Mikel Arteta has built a side that no longer wilts when it matters, and that is precisely the version of Arsenal City now have to face: the same core group, but carrying a title and a changed sense of what they're capable of finishing.It promises to be a stern examination all the same, because Arsenal have troubles of their own to smooth over first. Their preseason has been patchy — a comfortable 4-1 win over Girona followed by back-to-back defeats, 3-1 to Real Betis in Dublin and 3-2 to Borussia Dortmund. Several key names have been kept back from all of it. Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze have all been given extended rest after long World Cup campaigns, while William Saliba is managing a back issue he played through for France at the tournament and may not be fully sharp for some time. Arsenal, in other words, are not walking into Cardiff at full strength either.So this Community Shield carries more weight than its reputation usually allows. City are searching for the first proof of life after Guardiola, missing their captain-in-all-but-name and half a first-choice XI. Arsenal arrive as champions for the first time in over two decades, but bruised from pre-season and without several of the players who got them there. Whoever lifts the trophy in Cardiff, the more useful story on Sunday may simply be what both sides look like while trying to find their feet.
